Climate Services » Climate outlook Monday, November 24, 2008
Seasonal Climate Outlooks for November 2008 to January 2009
Predictors used: SSTa’S 1 & 9

 
Station
Below Median
(prob)
Median Rainfall (mm)
Above Median
(prob)
 
 
LEPS
Hit-rate
Sola
36
1025
64
 
 
16
70
Pekoa
34
524
66
 
 
32
73
Bauerfield
43
384
57
 
 
21
74
WhiteGrass
40
166
60
 
 
22
71
Aneityum
49
389
51
 
 
37
75
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Station
Below Normal
(prob)
33%ile
rainfall   (mm)
Normal
(prob)
66%ile
rainfall   (mm)
Above Normal
(prob)
LEPS
Hit-rate
Sola
11
844
45
1229
44
23
32
Pekoa
20
390
43
650
37
37
57
Bauerfield
29
314
43
500
28
11
66
WhiteGrass
16
123
47
194
37
37
60
Aneityum
25
286
43
466
32
32
54
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Outlooks for Dec 2008 to January 2009

North of Vanuatu:     

 Normal to above normal rainfall is favoured.

LEPS- Good to very good, ranging from 20 to 31

Lamap has been the exceptional of having below/ above normal rainfall in the coming 3     months.

South of Vanuatu

 

Normal to above normal rainfall is favoured from Efate to Whitegrass, Tanna. With the exceptional of Aneityum having a fair chance of below to above normal rainfall. LEPS looks good from 13 to 23.

NB: The LEPS % score has been categorised as follows:

< 0.0    à very low;     0 – 5 à low;   5 – 10 à moderate;     10 – 25 à good;        
> 25 à very good