Outlook for Pekoa

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  the outlook for November through to the end of January is biased towards "normal" rainfall in Pekoa with a 43% probability of occurrence. The probability of receiving "above normal" rainfall is next highest at 39%. The least likely situation is for "below-normal" rainfall in this period, with a probability of only 19%  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 2 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period could be expected to be "below-normal";  about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the November to January period at Pekoa includes rainfall less than 603.1mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 792.6mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 603.1 and 792.6mm. 

Outlook for Lamap

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  there is a good chance at 37%  of getting "above-normal" rainfall for November through to the end of January for Lamap. Oddly enough, the next highest likelyhood is for "below-normal" ASCII with a predicted probability of 35%. The likelihood of normal conditions occurring is lowest around 28%.  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 3 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period would be expected to be "below-normal";  about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Outlook for Bauerfield

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  the outlook for November through to the end of January is biased towards "normal" rainfall in Bauerfield with a 37% probability of occurrence. The probability of receiving "above normal" rainfall is next highest at 35%. The least likely situation is for "below-normal" rainfall in this period, with a probability of only 28%  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 3 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period could be expected to be "below-normal";  about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the November to January period at Bauerfield includes rainfall less than 450.8mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 676.9mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 450.8 and 676.9mm.    

Outlook for Port Vila

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  there is only a 26% chance of getting "above-normal" rainfall for November through to the end of January for Portvila. The most likely situation will be for "below-normal" rainfall in this period with the predicted probability being 37%. The likelihood of "normal" conditions occurring is around 36%.  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 4 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period would be expected to be "below-normal";  about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the November to January period at Portvila includes rainfall less than 447.9mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 661.7mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 447.9 and 661.7mm. 

Outlook for Aneityum

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  there is a good chance at 41%  of getting "above-normal" rainfall for November through to the end of January for Aneityum. Oddly enough, the next highest likelyhood is for "below-normal" ASCII with a predicted probability of 39%. The likelihood of normal conditions occurring is lowest around 20%.  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 4 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period would be expected to be "below-normal";  about 2 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the November to January period at Aneityum includes rainfall less than 449.7mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 693.1mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 449.7 and 693.1mm.    

Outlook for Patterson Sola

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  there is a good chance at 44%  of getting "above-normal" rainfall for November through to the end of January for Patterson Sola. The least  likely situation is for "below-normal" rainfall in this  period with the predicted probability being only 24%. The likelihood of normal conditions occurring is around 32%.  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 2 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period would be expected to be "below-normal";  about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the November to January period at Patterson Sola includes rainfall less than 940.5mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 1233.9mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 940.5 and 1233.9mm.    

Outlook for Whitegrass

Based upon the  3-mth average value of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies from July to September ( SSTa EOF1=0.485  SSTa EOF9=0.625  ),  the outlook for November through to the end of January is biased towards "normal" rainfall in Whitegrass  with a 44% probability of occurrence. The probability of receiving "above normal" rainfall is next highest at 37%. The least likely situation is for "below-normal" rainfall in this period, with a probability of only 20%  Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 2 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the November-January period could be expected to be "below-normal";  about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal".

Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the November to January period at Whitegrass  includes rainfall less than 243.6mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 391.8mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 243.6 and 391.8mm.