Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PORT VILA

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map Number 11 issued at 6:07 am VUT Sunday 11 February 2024



Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
  Warning Zone - Gales within 24 hours
  Advisory Zone - Gales from 24 to 48 hours
  Past Location and Intensity Number
  Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(up to 72 hours from time of issue)
  Current Location and Intensity Number
  Very Destructive Winds
  Destructive Winds
  Gale Force Winds
  Forecast Location and Intensity Number
  Very Destructive Wind Boundary
  Destructive Wind Boundary
  Gale Force Wind Boundary
  Most Likely Future Track
  Range of Likely Tracks

The forecast path shown above is VMGD's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning & watch zones reflects this.


Remarks:

Clouds associated from the Tropical Low is still possible to move pass and produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorm over some islands of Vanuatu today as the system is moving over Shefa. Possible flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas close to the river banks, including coastal flooding and landslide is possible. People living near these areas are advised to take extra precautions. A Severe Weather warning is current.

Seas will remain rough with moderate swells iis expected today and will remain in the next 6 to 24 hours over all waters of Vanuatu as the system is crossing over Vanuatu. See Separate Marine Warning Bulletin.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:
  Time (VUT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)		 Longitude
(decimal deg.)		 Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 am February 11 tropical low 18.4S 172.8E 130
+6hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low 18.6S 173.8E 130
+12hr 6 pm February 11 tropical low 18.8S 174.8E 130
+18hr 12 am February 12 tropical low 18.9S 175.6E 130
+24hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 18.9S 176.3E 130
+36hr 6 pm February 12 tropical low 19.0S 177.3E 130
+48hr 6 am February 13 tropical low 18.9S 177.8E 130
+60hr 6 pm February 13 1 18.6S 177.9E 120
+72hr 6 am February 14 1 18.3S 177.6E 120

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.